老虎機遊戲的隨機性是一個關鍵元素，它直接影響玩家的心理反應。以下是一些與隨機性相關的心理學因素： 1. 期望值（Expectation）：玩家在老虎機前常常抱著期望，希望贏得大獎。這種期望值與隨機性有關，因為每次旋轉都是獨立的，無法預測結果。這種不確定性營造了期望，使遊戲更具吸引力。 2. 負面風險（Negative Risk）：老虎機遊戲中的負面風險是指玩家在連續失敗的情況下可能損失的金額。由於隨機性的存在，玩家可能在短時間內連續輸掉多次，這可能導致沮喪和損失感。 3. 誤判效應（Illusion of Control）：誤判效應是一種心理現象，玩家誤以為他們可以控制遊戲的結果，儘管事實上完全取決於機會。這種誤判效應可能會導致過度自信，使玩家繼續下注，追求大獎。
The illusion of control is the tendency for people to overestimate their ability to control events, for example, when someone feels a sense of control over outcomes that they demonstrably do not influence. The illusion might arise because a person lacks direct introspective insight into whether they are in control of events. This has been called the introspection illusion. Instead, they may judge their degree of control by a process which is often unreliable.
As a result, they see themselves as responsible for events to which there is little or no causal link. For example, in one study, college students were in a virtual reality setting to treat a fear of heights using an elevator. Those who were told that they had control, yet had none, felt as though they had as much control as those who actually did have control over the elevator. Those who were led to believe they did not have control said they felt as though they had little control. (資料來源)
The psychologist’s fallacy is an informal fallacy that occurs when an observer assumes that his or her subjective experience reflects the true nature of an event. The fallacy was named by William James in the 19th century: The great snare of the psychologist is the confusion of his own standpoint with that of the mental fact about which he is making his report. I shall hereafter call this the ‘psychologist’s fallacy’ par excellence. (資料來源)
